Thursday, February 26, 2009
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Wednesday Funnies
BOOMBOX from Ely Kim on Vimeo.
Admittedly, this has nothing to do with Bel~Air -- but it is a slow (Bel~Air) news day and I got a big kick out of this kid who did 100 dances to 100 songs over 100 days in the above video. Click on the Play button on the bottom left corner of the above picture to start.
Somehow, I made it through the entire thing. It is silly but inexplicably captivating -- and a good example of "new media" viral video.
UPDATE
After seeing the above post - a friend of mine emailed me the below video done last year that might be better (and is certainly far more heartwarming) than the video above. Enjoy Matt as he dances across 42 countries with a cast of thousands.
Where the Hell is Matt? (2008) from Matthew Harding on Vimeo.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
The 10 Most Expensive Properties in Los Angeles
The Real Estalker just published a fascinating list of the 10 Most Expensive Properties on the Market in Los Angeles. In that the (below excerpted) 2 of the 10 are in Bel~Air, it makes for some fun reading.
Le Belvedere / The newest member of the mega-manse club to arrive on the open market belongs to real estate developer Mohamed Hadid and carries a porcine asking price of $85,000,000. The Nimes Road residence measures in at approximately 48,000 square feet and, as far as we're concerned, if this hotel-sized house were a person it would wear Versace head to toe, drive, a white Rolls Royce and go around screaming, "I have so much more money than you!" The 10 bedroom and 14 bathroom house sits on a 2.2 acre parcel in a choice section of Bel Air and the owner claims to have spent a jaw dropping $59,000,000 building the behemoth.
La Belle Vie / Also new to the suddenly over-populated Los Angeles area mega-mansion market is philanthropist Iris Cantor's palatial Platinum Triangle mansion known as La Belle Vie that recently appeared on the open market with a staggering asking price of $53,000,000. Measuring in at around 35,000 square feet with 9 bedrooms and a total of 21 bathrooms, the 18th-century style pile was built in the 1990s with what would appear to be a limitless budget.
Behind the Curtain - How Does your Bank Stack Up?
Nice chart from American Banker comparing various U.S. banks' tangible common equity capital ratio (a highly conservative measure of solvency) and Tier 1 capital ratio (a marginally less conservative but regulator-favored approach).
As you can see, the differences are fairly stark at many U.S banks. Straight up, most U.S. banks are at or close to insolvency by TCE measure, which speaks at least as much to the harshness of the test as it does to the actual financial condition of many of the banks.
Nevertheless, by the TCE measure the "safest" (I use that word advisedly) U.S. banks are JP Morgan and U.S. Bankcorp. The riskiest banks are Citi, BNY Mellon, and Wells Fargo.
There are lots of reasons why you should (really!) be critical of TCE as a measure of bank solvency, but there is no doubt that skepticism towards bank capital is deserved, so other measures were always going to come forward.
Credit to paul.kedrosky.com
Monday, February 23, 2009
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Break-out your Pocketbook - 2+ Acre Bel~Air Home for $85 Million
Mohamed Hadid, developer of Ritz-Carlton hotels and high-end custom homes, has listed his personal Bel-Air residence at $85 million. The 48,000-square-foot house has 10 bedrooms and 14 bathrooms, a 70-foot infinity pool, 5,000-bottle wine cellar, gym, Turkish sauna and ballroom that seats up to 250 guests.
Friday, February 20, 2009
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| We are starting to see a resurgence of thefts from mailboxes where the suspect has resorted to breaking into the mailboxes to remove the victims' mail. This action usually preceeds identity theft. Please consider these options to protect your identity. 1. Picking up your mail at the post office 2. When you receive unwanted catalogues call the company and request to be taken off their mailing list 3. Go to ZabaSearch.com and input your name to see what information is available to the public. You can request to have your information removed. 4. Check into companies that specialize in protecting your identity, and sign up. If you have any questions you can contact Sergeant David Podesta at (310) 444-0743 or by email at 32305@lapd.lacity.org |
Town Hall Meeting on California's Budget Crisis
Town Hall Meeting on California's Budget Crisis
· The State eliminated its 42 billion dollar deficit with huge cuts, increased taxes, borrowing, reliance on the federal stimulus package and by paying legislative ransoms to obtain key votes
· LA County government receives 23% of its budget from state funds that are already being cut; another 21% comes from property tax revenues - which are showing "negative growth"
- LA City government gets 23% of its revenue from property taxes; while another 33% of its revenues - sales & utility taxes, permits & fees, business & hotel taxes - are in free fall.
Bringing California's government budgets into balance will have a dramatic effect on the Westside.
® Services will be cut
® Aid to education will go down
® Support for transit programs will vanish
® Taxes will go up
Join our featured speakers
Ted Lieu
53rd Assembly District Member & Chair of the State Assembly Rules Committee
Zev Yaroslavsky
LA County 3rd District Supervisor
Wendy Greuel
LA City Council Member from the 2nd District & Budget Committee Member
In a discussion moderated by
Kitty Felde
Special Correspondent for Public Radio Station KPCC
to discuss the Budget Crisis at a Town Hall meeting arranged by the Venice Neighborhood Council
6:30pm - 8:30pm
Thursday, Feb 26th
at
Westminster Elementary School, 1010 Abbot Kinney Blvd. in Venice
Questions & Answer Session!
Refreshments!
and
No Admission Charge!
LAPD Westside Crime Update
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Thursday, February 19, 2009
Traders Revolts! Rick Santelli and the "Rant of the Year"
Fed up with Obama's plan, CNBC commentator goes on a rant.
'The government is promoting bad behavior... do we really want to subsidize the losers' mortgages... This is America! How many of you people want to pay for your neighbor's mortgage? President Obama are you listening? How about we all stop paying our mortgage! It's a moral hazard'
Stock Market - Trying to Hold the Line
Above you will see a chart of our current recession as compared to the other major stock market crashes from the modern age. If we break the support levels today and reattach to the Great Depression trend line, I will be very worried. . .
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
UCLA Helps Take Your Mind off the Economy
UCLA School of Theater, Film and Television presents:
You can get more details about each screening by clicking on the title. A hyperlink will open, Cut and paste the link to your web server and the full program and program details will open.
Wed Feb 25, 2009
Wed Feb 25, 2009
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Now (Post Crash) what $1,000,000 can Buy you Across the Country.
Las Vegas Home
Price: $1.19 million
Square Feet: 5,417
Bedrooms: 4
Bathrooms: 3
New York Home
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
ARCHITECTURAL FORUM - March 18, 2009
Presents:
AN ARCHITECTURAL FORUM
A Discussion of Bel-Air’s Distinctive Architecture
Past, Present, and Future
Featuring Distinguished Panelists Including:
Bret Parsons, Author, Colcord Home, and an upcoming book about Bel-Air architecture
Alejandro Ortiz, Architect and Member of the LA City Planning Commission
Michael Buhler, Advocacy Director, LA Conservancy
Dion Neutra, Architect, Former Partner of his father Richard Neutra, and current Director of The Neutra Foundation
Harriet F. Williams, Granddaughter of Architect Paul Williams
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Exact time & location available
Through the association offices
Please reserve your seat at this event by calling The Bel-Air Association office at 310.474.3527
This event is presented free of charge to Bel~Air Association Members as a Community Service of the Bel-Air Association!
Four of Top Ten Deadliest Stretches of Road in America are in California
Eight of the top 10 were in Western states — California, Arizona, Nevada and Texas. The other two roads were in Florida. And all but the last road on the list were major Interstates.
If you live in the neighborhood, you probably already are aware of the danger that lurks ahead. If you don't, but you're planning on doing some cross-country travel, be alert:
Roads With the Most Fatalities Over The Last 5 Years, By County
1) 346 deaths: I-15 in San Bernardino County, California
Ironically, many fatalities on this stretch of I-15 may be because the road is so straight and wide.
“That road will put you to sleep,” said Baker Fire Station Chief Dan Tellez, whose station deals with all the emergencies along 75 miles of the highway. “And a lot of people tend to be speeding because it's so wide and so straight.”
Alcohol also plays a role in this highway's death toll. “We get a few people driving under the influence, coming from Vegas after partying all night,” Tellez said.
An accident last week killed two people when their car crashed into water barrels lining the freeway.
2) 182 deaths: I-10 in Riverside County, California
Two people were killed and four were injured in a four-car crash here in January, after a pickup truck veered into oncoming traffic.
But don't blame the road design, local officials say.
"Most of it doesn't have to do with the road per se," said California Highway Patrol Public Information Officer Chris Blondon, whose area includes part of I-10 in Riverside. "It more has to do with the drivers. Most of the crashes we see along that area are due to unsafe speeds. They're going too fast for the road conditions."
3) 178 deaths: I-10 in Maricopa County, Arizona
A local musician was killed in September after an 18-wheeler turned over in front of him.
State officials say the road is too narrow for the amount of traffic it now handles. Some parts are already being widened, and the state is asking for $61 million in federal stimulus funding to widen the rest of the road and do minor repairs.
"The purpose of the I-10 widening is to transform it from a rural style highway to an urban one," Arizona Department of Transportation spokesman Timothy Tait said. "Right now it has two lanes in each direction, which is very inadequate for a place like Phoenix."
4) 158 deaths: I-5 in Los Angeles County, California
On Oct. 12, 2007, a speeding truck crashed into a concrete barrier in a tunnel near Santa Clarita, causing a chain reaction of crashes. Three people were killed and 26 vehicles were destroyed in an inferno that engulfed the tunnel. The fire shut down the highway for two days.
This week, a California Highway Patrol report determined that speeding was the primary cause of the accident — at least 13 of the vehicles were going over the speed limit.
But Saia Motor Freight, the company that owned the truck that started the chain reaction, told the Los Angeles Times that poor lighting conditions in the tunnel and inadequately maintained warning signs were to blame. The California Department of Transportation said it has since improved conditions in the tunnel.
5) 153 deaths: I-45 in Harris County, Texas
A man was killed last month when he was speeding and missed a turn on I-45 near Fuqua. The car rolled over at least twice and ended in a ditch, FOX 26 reported.
State officials say the sheer amount of traffic on the road is the main problem.
"[I-45] is a major traffic corridor through the city of Houston. Whenever you have more cars, you're going to have more crashes," said Mark Cross, a spokesman for the Texas Department of Transportation.
The Texas DOT has identified $3 million in safety improvements, such as signs and pavement markings, that it would like to see funded with federal stimulus money.
6) 148 deaths: I-15 in Clark County, Nevada
Two men died in a head-on collision in September, caused by one of the drivers going in the wrong direction on the freeway.
But this road is getting better: Fatalities fell from 39 in 2006 to 19 last year.
Kevin Honea, a trooper with the Nevada Department of Public Safety, attributed the decline in fatalities to increased police activity, which has been particularly focused on this stretch of I-10 going from California to Las Vegas.
“Biggest reason is an increased officer presence out there,” Honea said. “We’ve got a very aggressive group of guys out there.... People see our officers, and they know they had better buckle up.”
Scott Magruder, a spokesman for the Nevada Department of Transportation, said major projects to widen the highway and add an express lane are under way and due for completion next April. Less congestion should improve safety even more, he said, as drivers feel less of a need to weave between lanes.
The state is planning another widening of the road between Tropicana and State Road 160, which would cost up to $250 million. Magruder said funding from the proposed stimulus bill may help pay for that.
7) 131 deaths: I-95 in Palm Beach County, Florida
The driver of a gasoline tanker truck was sentenced to 35 years in prison in December after being found responsible for an accident in which his truck turned over on a car, exploded, and killed four people.
Prosecutors said the driver was going 25 miles per hour over the speed limit and had not taken the mandatory rest breaks for truck drivers.
The Florida Department of Transportation has listed $160 million in additions and repairs to I-95 in its wish list for federal stimulus money.
Tied for 8) 118 deaths: I-10 in Pinal County, Arizona
Local firefighters who respond to calls on the road say a main problem is bored drivers who fall asleep.
"It's probably one of the straightest sections of I-10 there is," said Assistant Fire Chief Jim Morgan of the Casa Grande Fire Department. "This stretch of the road is basically the center point between Tuscon and Phoenix. It's a long-distance trip, and we're at the middle point.... Most people who survive wrecks usually tell us they were getting fatigued."
Tied for 8) 118 deaths: I-5 in San Diego County, California
A pregnant woman was killed in January after another car clipped her vehicle while switching lanes. The offending driver will stand trial for speeding and driving recklessly.
10) 102 deaths: US-1 in Miami-Dade County, Florida
A woman was sentenced to three years in jail in 2007 after making a U-turn that led to the death of a motorcyclist. She was also sentenced for possession of cocaine, marijuana and drug paraphernalia.
By Maxim Lott FOXNews
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
LAPD Community Crime Alert
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Monday, February 9, 2009
UCLA CANDIDATES NIGHT Wednesday, February 11, 2009
The Bel-Air Association invites you to the upcoming
UCLA CANDIDATES NIGHT
For the Los Angeles Municipal Prim
ary Election
The forum will take place on Wednesday, February 11, 2009
from 6:30 p.m. - 8:30 p.m. (5:30 p.m. Reception)
California Nano Systems Institute Auditorium (CNSI)
UCLA CAMPUS
Please RSVP to (310) 794-6810 or advocacy@support.ucla.edu by February 9, 2009
An evening of candidates, questions, and answers
and our community coming together!
The Primary Municipal Election for the City of Los Angeles will take place on
Tuesday, March 3, 2009.
The Bel-Air Association’s City Services Committee invites our members to meet the candidates running for the Fifth District position on the Los Angeles City Council.
The City of Los Angeles 5th Council District
candidates are:
ADEENA BLEICH
RON GALPERIN
PAUL KORETZ
ROBERT SCHWARTZ
ROBYN RITTER SIMON
DAVID T. VAHEDI
This invitation is sent to you by the Bel Air Association, City Services Committee. For more information please call Paulette M. DuBey, our General Manager at 310.474.3527.
The evening will be moderated by Adrienne Alpert, KABC-TV Channel 7.
This program will be re-broadcast on KABC-TV and LA Channel 36 at a later date. Parking is in LOT 9.
Sunday, February 8, 2009
Wow! LA Times Quotes the Bel~Air Blog!!
From the LA Times
In Bel-Air, 'mansionization' might not be a bad word
Efforts by the city of Los Angeles to reduce mansionization in the hillside areas might make sense in neighborhoods where modest homes are being turned into monster homes.
But Curbed L.A. found that the reaction might be different in a place like Bel-Air, where mansions are, well, encouraged. Curbed reports that the rules are unlikely to prevent big homes in Bel-Air. But on the Bel-Air Association Blog, at least one residents said the tony neighborhood should be wary:
Bel-Air is a unique neighborhood with grand homes and high quality design and development and MUST NOT be painted with the same brush as many other parts of Los Angeles.
Here is a list of public meetings the city is having on the issue.
--Shelby Grad
Photo: Los Angeles Times
Friday, February 6, 2009
Cool Picture of the Day
Facinating dicotomy of the newly completed Central Los Angeles Area High School #9 (right) and
the Cathedral of Our Lady of the Angels (left) as seen from above the 101 Freeway.
And an aerial shot of both campuses with Downtown LA in the background.
From the LA Times - Expo Line phase II public meetings to begin
The draft environmental report for the second phase was released last week, and the meetings are designed to give the public a chance to provide feedback to the Expo Line Construction Authority, the government agency building the light rail line.
The authority supplied a briefing on the draft report for the media this morning in Culver City. A few interesting morsels popped up:
1. The authority still hopes to open the first phase to Culver City in 2010. But if there are delays resolving the crossings at Dorsey High and Foshay Learning Center, officials may try to open the line to Crenshaw Boulevard in 2010, said Samantha Bricker, chief operating officer of the authority.
2. There are two main routes under consideration -- using a combination of Venice and Sepulveda boulevards or an existing rail right-of-way that runs north of the 10 Freeway. But the draft environmental report says Venice isn't wide enough to accommodate a train, one reason officials say the right-of-way would be better.
Putting aside the issue of which route is best, I suggested the Venice conclusion doesn't pass the smell test, given that Venice is about as big and wide a street as they come. But Steve Polechronis, a senior vice president and project manager for the firm AECom, which is helping plan the line, said the Expo Line would require a 30-foot right-of-way on Venice. "When we looked block-to-block, we couldn't put a continuous line in there without losing those lanes," Polechronis said. My guess is this issue will arise at the public meetings.
3. If the train travels down the median of Olympic Boulevard in Santa Monica, 42 trees will have to be cut down. Santa Monica activists are already on high alert, and Construction Authority officials said they're still trying to come up with a mitigation plan.
So the stage is set: Will a $1.3-billion-plus light rail line be held up by 42 trees? Only time will tell...
The dates and times of the public meetings are after the jump.
Expo Line Draft Environmental Impact Report meetings:
Feb. 18, 5 p.m. to 8 p.m.
Santa Monica High School
601 Pico Blvd.
Feb. 23, 5 p.m. to 8 p.m.
Vista Del Mar Child and Family Services
3200 Motor Ave.
Feb. 25, 5 p.m. to 8 p.m.
Webster Middle School
11220 W. Graham Place
Photo: Mayor Villaraigosa and MTA officials spoke late last year about victory of transit tax (Measure R) to pay for rail construction projects, including the Expo Line. Credit: Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
Why Not. . .Barneys Warehouse Sale Starts Tomorrow
Label: Barneys Warehouse SaleDeal: 50% to 75% off clothing for men and women
When/Where: Thursday, February 5th through Monday, February 16th. Thu-Fri February 5th-6th, 8am-9pm; Sat February 7th, 9am-7pm; Sun February 8th, 10am-7pm; Mon-Fri February 9th-13th, 10am-8pm; Sat-Sun February 14-15, 10am-7pm; Mon February 16, 10am-7pm. Barker Hanger, Santa Monica Airport, 3021 Airport Ave (310-276-4400)
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
ALERT - Bel~Air to Face More Restrictive Residential Development Standards
Click on Image to Enlarge
Email from Erick Lopez
City Planner
Department of City Planning
Community Planning Bureau - West Coastal Division
Department of City Planning
Community Planning Bureau - West Coastal Division
Greetings All:
The City of Los Angeles Department of City Planning invites you to attend the Hillside Kick-Off Meetings. Department staff will be conducting a series of public meetings throughout the City in order to hear your comments, and discuss issues related to development in Los Angeles hillside neighborhoods.
Your input will help staff identify concerns, and influence the scope of the citywide hillside project. These efforts will ultimately result in proposed Code Amendments affecting single-family development in the City's Hillside Areas. The meetings will start with a presentation from staff and will move on to general comments. Please feel free to attend any of the meetings listed below.
Harbor Area Meeting
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
5:00 p.m. - 8:00 p.m.
Peck Park Gymnasium
560 N. Western Ave.
San Pedro, CA 90732
Westside Meeting
Thursday, February 19, 2009
5:00 p.m. - 8:00 p.m.
Henry Medina Parking Enforcement Facility
11214 W. Exposition Blvd., 2nd Floor
Los Angeles, CA 90064
South Valley Meeting
Monday, February 23, 2009
5:00 p.m. - 8:00 p.m.
Marvin Braude Building
6262 Van Nuys Blvd., Room 1A
Van Nuys, CA 91401
North Valley Meeting
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
5:00 p.m. - 8:00 p.m.
Council District Two Field Office
7747 Foothill Blvd.
Tujunga, CA 91042
Metro/Eastside Meeting
Thursday, February 26, 2009
5:00 p.m. - 8:00 p.m.
City Hall, Room 1010
200 N. Spring St.
Los Angeles, CA 90012
In an effort to notify as many people as possible regarding this email we are using several email lists. If you are getting this email it means that you are involved with your local Certified Neighborhood Council, or have expressed interest in the Hillside Ordinance, Baseline Mansionization Ordinance, or other Land-Use Policies. Please feel free to forward this email to anyone you know that may be interested in this project or these meetings, or to post the attached flyer on any community bulletin boards.
Also, if you have not already signed up for the Hillside Project Interested Parties List please send me an email with your name, contact information (with at least a ZIP Code), and groups you are associated with. That list will be used for any future email notifications and updates, so please be sure to let me know early on.
If you have any question regarding these meetings or the project as a whole, please do not hesitate to contact me. We look forward to working with you all.
_________________________________________
Erick Lopez
City Planner
Department of City Planning
Community Planning Bureau - West Coastal Division
200 N. Spring St., Room 621
Los Angeles, CA 90012
(213) 978-1243
(213) 978-1226 - fax
Department of City Planning
Community Planning Bureau - West Coastal Division
200 N. Spring St., Room 621
Los Angeles, CA 90012
(213) 978-1243
(213) 978-1226 - fax
Monday, February 2, 2009
From the LA Times - Westside Home Prices Take Hit
This is actor Nicolas Cage's Bel-Air Tudor home on Copa De Oro, a residence formerly owned by singers Dean Martin and Tom Jones, respectively. Cage listed the home in September for an astounding $29.999 million, but the residence just underwent another chop, falling to $19.75 million. More via the listing: "This landmark estate is a piece of art on 1 acre of lush ground and gardens front and back with over 11,000 square feet of luxurious living." Meanwhile, Cage purchased the home in 1998 from Jones for $6.469 million.
Prices remained strong in L.A.'s ritzy areas until the market caught up. Values sank as much as 30% in late 2008.
The Southern California real estate crash has finally reached the high-end areas of the Westside.
Home prices in Beverly Hills, Santa Monica and Malibu -- which continued to soar well into 2008 -- finally tanked at the end of the year, losing between 26% and 30% of their value in just a few months, the latest data show.
Home prices in Beverly Hills, Santa Monica and Malibu -- which continued to soar well into 2008 -- finally tanked at the end of the year, losing between 26% and 30% of their value in just a few months, the latest data show.
Related Content
The sudden drop came as a surprise to Shelley Conn, who remained a believer in the myth that the wealthier parts of the Westside were immune until she put her Santa Monica house on the market last spring.
She and her husband, Bill, had been offered $2.4 million for the three-bedroom just months before, so she listed the house for $2.3 million, figuring that would make up for the lousy real estate climate. But it didn't sell until November, after the couple dropped the price to $1.9 million.
It's still a lot of money for a basic one-story house. But in Conn's wealthy neighborhood, few residents thought anything would drop below $2 million.
"I didn't believe it until the end," Conn said.
But it's true.
The median price of a single-family home in Beverly Hills was $2.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2008, down from $3 million in the second quarter, according to data prepared for The Times by research firm MDA DataQuick. Pacific Palisades closed the year with a median price of $2.2 million, down from a high of $2.6 million during the second quarter, and Santa Monica's median was $1.6 million, down from $2.1 million last winter.
Even among the merely well-off in Culver City, prices have come down, to $647,500, 17% below the peak. In ZIP Code 90035, just south of Beverly Hills, the median sale price had been more than $1 million for most of 2007 but fell in the fourth quarter of 2008 to $800,000.
Brentwood's fourth-quarter median of $2.3 million was down 11% from its peak.
"The market is absolutely correcting," said Richard Stearns, who lives in Santa Monica and sells real estate in Brentwood. "Prices are softening, houses are taking longer to sell, the number of transactions is down."
The downward trend is no surprise to economist Christopher Thornberg, principal of the Los Angeles consulting firm Beacon Economics, who for years angered many real estate agents by repeatedly saying the Westside would eventually see price declines just like the rest of Southern California.
"It was never a function of if," Thornberg said. "It was always when."
When people in entry-level homes can't sell their properties to move up, there is less demand in the middle tier and eventually at the high end, he said.
"It takes a while, but the markets are all linked," Thornberg said.
The numbers were bound to go down, he and others said, for the same reasons they did in less wealthy neighborhoods -- prices rose beyond what incomes could reasonably support.
Wealthy areas can stave off market woes for a while, in part because well-off homeowners usually have the resources to sustain high mortgage payments and weather downturns longer than people with less money. In many cases, the affluent can afford to hold on to a house longer while waiting for a better price.
But eventually the market catches up, and those who want to sell their expensive houses have to cut prices.
It's happened before. Though few seemed to remember it even last year, the Westside has suffered in previous real estate downturns.
At the peak of the 1980s housing boom, for example, the Santa Monica house that the Conns recently sold went for $920,000. But in 1993, it sold for $600,000 -- a 35% drop. The Conns bought it for $825,000 in 1997, still 10% below its 1989 price.
They didn't time the market so well the second time around, though. They bought their current house in the same neighborhood before prices started to drop, paying $3.9 million.
Kenneth Rosen, a UC Berkeley economist who studies housing markets, thinks prices will continue to fall on the Westside as they have elsewhere, but the declines won't be as severe as in areas such as the Inland Empire, where subprime financing was rampant and foreclosures dominate sales.
The Westside "is less sensitive to the mortgage issue," he said, "I wouldn't be surprised to see 10% to 20% declines."
The number of houses sold in Beverly Hills in the fourth quarter, 38, was down 47% from the same period in 2007, according to DataQuick. Santa Monica's total of 46 sales in the fourth quarter was down 29%, DataQuick said.
Sellers have been pulling unsold houses off the market to rent instead, said Elizabeth Puro, a Westside real estate agent, but waiting the market out as a landlord is becoming less attractive as rents go down. That could eventually pull selling prices lower still.
She estimates there are three times as many houses for lease on the Westside as there were a year ago, and "that market is not as strong as it was. Someone who could have leased a house for $20,000 a month a year ago would have to lease it for $12,000 now," she said.
The lower rents could in turn push housing prices down even more, said UC Berkeley economist Tom Davidoff.
Conn, for one, says she is prepared for that.
"We bought our previous house because we thought it would be a good investment," she said. "This time, we bought a house we fell in love with."
She and her husband, Bill, had been offered $2.4 million for the three-bedroom just months before, so she listed the house for $2.3 million, figuring that would make up for the lousy real estate climate. But it didn't sell until November, after the couple dropped the price to $1.9 million.
It's still a lot of money for a basic one-story house. But in Conn's wealthy neighborhood, few residents thought anything would drop below $2 million.
"I didn't believe it until the end," Conn said.
But it's true.
The median price of a single-family home in Beverly Hills was $2.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2008, down from $3 million in the second quarter, according to data prepared for The Times by research firm MDA DataQuick. Pacific Palisades closed the year with a median price of $2.2 million, down from a high of $2.6 million during the second quarter, and Santa Monica's median was $1.6 million, down from $2.1 million last winter.
Even among the merely well-off in Culver City, prices have come down, to $647,500, 17% below the peak. In ZIP Code 90035, just south of Beverly Hills, the median sale price had been more than $1 million for most of 2007 but fell in the fourth quarter of 2008 to $800,000.
Brentwood's fourth-quarter median of $2.3 million was down 11% from its peak.
"The market is absolutely correcting," said Richard Stearns, who lives in Santa Monica and sells real estate in Brentwood. "Prices are softening, houses are taking longer to sell, the number of transactions is down."
The downward trend is no surprise to economist Christopher Thornberg, principal of the Los Angeles consulting firm Beacon Economics, who for years angered many real estate agents by repeatedly saying the Westside would eventually see price declines just like the rest of Southern California.
"It was never a function of if," Thornberg said. "It was always when."
When people in entry-level homes can't sell their properties to move up, there is less demand in the middle tier and eventually at the high end, he said.
"It takes a while, but the markets are all linked," Thornberg said.
The numbers were bound to go down, he and others said, for the same reasons they did in less wealthy neighborhoods -- prices rose beyond what incomes could reasonably support.
Wealthy areas can stave off market woes for a while, in part because well-off homeowners usually have the resources to sustain high mortgage payments and weather downturns longer than people with less money. In many cases, the affluent can afford to hold on to a house longer while waiting for a better price.
But eventually the market catches up, and those who want to sell their expensive houses have to cut prices.
It's happened before. Though few seemed to remember it even last year, the Westside has suffered in previous real estate downturns.
At the peak of the 1980s housing boom, for example, the Santa Monica house that the Conns recently sold went for $920,000. But in 1993, it sold for $600,000 -- a 35% drop. The Conns bought it for $825,000 in 1997, still 10% below its 1989 price.
They didn't time the market so well the second time around, though. They bought their current house in the same neighborhood before prices started to drop, paying $3.9 million.
Kenneth Rosen, a UC Berkeley economist who studies housing markets, thinks prices will continue to fall on the Westside as they have elsewhere, but the declines won't be as severe as in areas such as the Inland Empire, where subprime financing was rampant and foreclosures dominate sales.
The Westside "is less sensitive to the mortgage issue," he said, "I wouldn't be surprised to see 10% to 20% declines."
The number of houses sold in Beverly Hills in the fourth quarter, 38, was down 47% from the same period in 2007, according to DataQuick. Santa Monica's total of 46 sales in the fourth quarter was down 29%, DataQuick said.
Sellers have been pulling unsold houses off the market to rent instead, said Elizabeth Puro, a Westside real estate agent, but waiting the market out as a landlord is becoming less attractive as rents go down. That could eventually pull selling prices lower still.
She estimates there are three times as many houses for lease on the Westside as there were a year ago, and "that market is not as strong as it was. Someone who could have leased a house for $20,000 a month a year ago would have to lease it for $12,000 now," she said.
The lower rents could in turn push housing prices down even more, said UC Berkeley economist Tom Davidoff.
Conn, for one, says she is prepared for that.
"We bought our previous house because we thought it would be a good investment," she said. "This time, we bought a house we fell in love with."
Don't Put Away that Warm Coat Just Yet
For goodness sake, please don't forget the no spiking rule!!
Ben Hughes, handler of the weather-predicting groundhog Punxsutawney Phil, holds Phil in the air after removing him from his stump at Gobbler's Knob on Groundhog Day, Monday, Feb. 2, 2009, in Punxsutawney, Pa. The Groundhog Club said Phil saw his shadow and predicted six more weeks of winter.
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